Selasa, 10 April 2012

Ian Kinsler's Extension

Last night, the Rangers and 2B Ian Kinsler agreed to a five-year extension with an option for a sixth year. This deal is worth 75 million dollars at least as Kinsler has a 14 million average annual salery and a 5 million buyout clause if the option is not picked up. This new contract will begin in 2013 after Kinsler's current contract runs out. Kinsler had arguably his best year in the majors last season as he hit 32 home runs, 77 RBIs, and 30 stolen bases.

The concern I have about Kinsler is the fact that Kinsler has only played over 140 games in one season twice in his six career seasons. That makes this a huge risk for a contract of this length as he will be 36 at the end of the five years (37 if the option is picked up). This extension seems like a huge risk for a guy who has not been able to stay away from injury that well. However, Kinsler is a very dangerous hitter when he is healthy as he has the power to have a few more thirty home run seasons. Kinsler could be a 30-30 guy for the next couple of seasons as long as he is healthy.

Kinsler received more money per year than Utley did when he was 29 and Utley was putting up better numbers. Utley has also been better defensively at second base than Kinsler as is not as good as Utley when he was 29 years old. The last factor in this deal is that Utley had a better record of health before signing this deal even though Utley now struggles stay healthy. The Rangers are probably going to regret taking this big risk and signing this deal with Kinsler as he will not be worth 14 million dollars per year.

The Kinsler deal will impact a lot of players as second baseman like Robinson Cano will think they can get more money from their teams. The first player that is affected is the previously mentioned Robinson Cano. Cano will be a Yankee through 2013 but Brian Cashman will probably loo to lock him up long term. Cano has been healthier and more successful at the platethan Kinsler in his career and Cano could look for 16 to 18 million a year. Cano has also been very good defensively which will help him in negotiations. Cano has also played over 155 games in every season beginning in 2007. The Kinsler deal could lead to Robinson Cano getting a five-year extension worth around 85 million dollars.

Kinsler's deal may impact negotiations between Brandon Phillips and the Reds over a new contract. Phillips will be in Cincy only through the rest of the season as Phillips will hit the open market if the Reds and Phillips do not agree to an extension. The Reds and Phillips have been actively talking about a new contract as the Reds have offered a five-year 60 million dollar extension. Phillips could now look for a deal right around Kinsler's deal but Phillips has put up slightly weaker numbers than Kinsler has. I would expect this to get Phillips a little more money from the Reds now and I would estimate an extension will be for five years and 65 million dollars.

The player that Kinsler's deal may have the biggest impact on is Nationals 2B Danny Espinosa. The Nationals might have been looking to lock up Danny Espinosa to a 6-year deal similar to the one Dustin Pedroia received but Espinosa now knows that he can get more than that. Espinosa could now look at going to arbitration as a way to get more money for his client and eventually getting an extension that is at least as big as the one Ian Kinsler has just signed. Espinosa has done better in his first season than Kinsler and he should be able to be better than Kinsler. Danny Espinosa may not be close to signing a long term contract extension but he can definitely thank Kinsler and the Rangers for giving him the chance to make a lot more money.

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