Breaking down the World Cup voting

The fall-out from yesterday's double-shock in Switzerland continues after FIFA selected Russia and Qatar as hosts for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.

England were humiliated with only two votes, one of which came from their own representative Geoff Thompson, and Spain/Portugal, the favourites, were left scratching their heads after Russia romped home 13-7 in the second round.

2022 provided a bigger shock as, despite its small size and searing heat, Qatar beat the USA 14-8 in the fourth round of voting. Australia, once seen as the front-runner, crashed in flames with only one vote.

World Cup 2018
1st Round Russia 9, Spain/Port 7, Neth/Belgium 4, England 2
2nd Round Russia 13, Spain/Portugal 7, Neth/Belgium 2

World Cup 2022
1st round: Qatar 11, South Korea 4, Japan 3, USA 3, Australia 1

2nd round: Qatar 10, South Korea 5, USA 5, Japan 2

3rd round: Qatar 11, USA 6, South Korea 5

4th round: Qatar 14, USA 8

The identities behind the 22 votes are kept anonymous by FIFA, who used blank ballots, but it appears clear that Russia won by picking up two of the Low Countries' supporters, plus Geoff Thompson and England's other supporter, believed to be Junji Ogura or Issa Hayatou. Spain/Portugal had seven key backers but could not move up from seven.

The 2022 decision went two more rounds because South Korea maintained a core vote of five and Japan two, four of whom eventually transferred to Qatar, who actually went down a vote between rounds one and two but maintained a comfortable lead over the USA throughout.

Qatar, Japan and the Netherlands/Belgium all saw their support reduce between particular rounds, proving certain FIFA delegates changed their minds during the process, while only Spain/Portugal had an unchanging block of votes.

Qatar finished with three and Russia with four more votes than they began with, but the USA showed the most improvement across the decision process, increasing its votes by five between the first and final round.

We may never know which delegate voted for which country, but the breakdown could have been thus:

2018 - 1st Round
Russia - Mutko, Blatter, Warner, Blazer, Salguero, Beckenbauer, Anouma, Lefkaritis, Hayatou
Spain/Portugal - Villar Llona, Leoz, Grondona, Abo Rida, Bin Hammam, Makudi, Teixeira
Netherlands/Belgium -D'Hooghe, Chung, Erzik, Platini
England - Thompson, Ogura

2nd Round
Russia - Mutko, Blatter, Warner, Blazer, Salguero, Beckenbauer, Anouma, Lefkaritis, Hayatou, Ogura, Chung, Erzik, Platini
Spain/Portugal - Villar Llona, Leoz, Grondona, Abo Rida, Bin Hammam, Makudi, Teixeira
Netherlands/Belgium -D'Hooghe, Thompson

2022 - 1st Round
Qatar - Bin Hammam, Leoz, Grondona, Teixeira, Abo Rida, Makudi, Villar Llona, Platini, Hayatou, Anouma, Lefkaritis,
South Korea -Chung, D'Hooghe, Erzik, Blatter
Japan - Ogura, Thompson, Mutko
USA - Warner, Blazer, Salguero
Australia - Beckenbauer

2nd Round
Qatar - Bin Hammam, Leoz, Grondona, Abo Rida, Makudi, Villar Llona, Platini, Hayatou, Anouma, Lefkaritis,
South Korea -Chung, D'Hooghe, Erzik, Blatter, Texeira
USA - Warner, Blazer, Salguero, Mutko, Beckenbauer
Japan - Ogura, Thompson

3rd Round
Qatar - Bin Hammam, Leoz, Grondona, Abo Rida, Makudi, Villar Llona, Platini, Hayatou, Anouma, Lefkaritis, Ogura
USA - Warner, Blazer, Salguero, Mutko, Beckenbauer, Thompson
South Korea -Chung, D'Hooghe, Erzik, Blatter, Texeira

4th Round
Qatar - Bin Hammam, Leoz, Grondona, Abo Rida, Makudi, Villar Llona, Platini, Hayatou, Anouma, Lefkaritis, Ogura, Texeira, Chung, Erzik
USA - Warner, Blazer, Salguero, Mutko, Beckenbauer, Thompson, Blatter, D'Hooge

As for the motives for voting, that debate is only just beginning...

-Sean O'Conor

Tags

World Cup Pens
World Cup Posters
Euro 2012 football

Liga Italia | Benitez Berjudi Hadapi Lazio

Pelatih Inter Milan Rafael Benitez telah memilih skuad untuk menghadapi Lazio malam ini. Namun, dari tiga striker yang dipersiapkan, ketajaman mereka di musim ini masih rendah.

Benitez tak bisa membawa kekuatan penuhnya saat bertandang ke Olimpico, Jumat (3/12/2010) malam. Andalan utama di lini depan, Samuel Eto'o, harus absen setelah terkena sanksi tiga pertandingan karena menanduk bek Chievo, Cesar, di penampilan sebelumnya.

Penyerang lain yang produktivitasnya belum seperti musim lalu, Diego Milito, juga tidak akan main karena masih bergulat dengan cedera.

Alhasil Benitez tak punya banyak pilihan kecuali membawa tiga penyerang lain yang dimiliki. Ketiga pemain itu adalah yaitu Goran Pandev, Denis Alibec dan Ludovic Biabiany.

Masalahnya, di antara mereka belum ada yang mencetak gol di liga musim ini. Meski begitu Pandev diharapkan Benitez memberikan sesuatu yang lebih karena ia sangat mengenal Lazio karena memang pernah bermain untuk klub ibukota tersebut.

Hasil menghadapi Lazio juga akan menjadi sangat penting dalam persiapan Inter menghadapi FIFA Club World Cup pada pertengahan Desember ini. Adapun Lazio, mereka sedang dalam performa yang cukup baik dan masih berada di papan atas klasemen, di urutan kedua di bawah AC Milan.

Skuad Inter:

Kiper : 12 Luca Castellazzi, 21 Paolo Orlandoni, 92 Alberto Gallinetta;

Bek : 2 Ivan Cordoba, 4 Javier Zanetti, 6 Lucio, 23 Marco Materazzi, 34 Cristiano Biraghi, 36 Simone Benedetti, 39 Davide Santon, 57 Felice Natalino;

Gelandang : 5 Dejan Stankovic, 8 Thiago Motta, 10 Wesley Sneijder, 11 Sulley Muntari, 19 Esteban Cambiasso, 40 Obiora Nwankwo;

Striker: 27 Goran Pandev, 31 Denis Alibec, 88 Ludovic Biabiany.

Piala AFF | 'Gajah Putih' Perlu Sabar untuk Menang

Kegagalan Thailand mengalahkan Laos di laga perdana lalu diklaim karena tak fitnya kondisi para pemain. Kini dengan kondisi yang sudah bugar, pasukan "Gajah Putih" ingin menang.

Thailang yang datang ke turnamen ini berstatus favorit, menuai hasil mengecewakan saat melawan Laos. Sempat tertinggal dua kali, Thailand akhirnya mampu memaksakan skor 2-2.

Tak ada permainan enerjik dan menawan yang diperlihatkan tim pemegang tiga gelar Piala AFF itu. Langkah Thailand pun menjadi lebih sulit karena di saat bersamaan Indonesia yang jadi pesaing terkuat justru menang besar 5-1 atas Malaysia.

Hanya tiga poin atas Malaysia di Stadion Gelora Bung Karno, Sabtu (4/12/2010), yang bisa kembali membuka lebar peluang lolos ke semifinal.

"Pertandingan ini sangat penting. Siapapun yang memenangi laga ini punya peluang besar ke semifinal," tegas pelatih Bryan Robson dalam jumpa pers di Hotel Sultan, Jakarta, Jumat (3/12/2010) sore WIB.

"Di laga pertama banyak pemain kami yang cedera. Tapi untuk laga melawan Malaysia pemain sudah banyak yang pulih dan kondisinya sudah 100 persen," sambungnya.

Soal strategi yang bakal digunakan pada laga nanti, pelatih asal Inggris itu tak banyak berkomentar. Namun secara spesifik ia menyebut dua pemain depan Malaysia adalah yang patut diwaspadai.

"Soal strategi nanti, saya melihat dulu seperti apa laga besok berjalan. Namun kami harus sabar dan mencari peluang untuk mengalahkan Malaysia. Kami harus menyerang dan bertahan secara tim."

"Pemain Malaysia nomor 9 dan 10 mereka berbahaya dan bermain baik saat melawan Indonesia. Kami patut mewaspadai mereka," tandas mantan kapten timnas Inggris dan Manchester United itu.

Robson juga mengatakan bakal melakukan perombakan besar pada formasi tim. Ada tujuh pemain yang bakal diganti dalam starting line up besok.

Japan's techno-dream for 2022

2022 World Cup decision: Japan's quest
Soccerphile speaks exclusively to JFA Chief Junji Ogura

Few expect either Japan or South Korea to win the right to host the 2022 World Cup, it is true.

Despite excellent bids, the fact both nations staged the tournament as recently as eight years ago appears to be their biggest enemy, despite the fact that equally shows they are safe pairs of hands.

Up against the pulling power of the USA, the virgin soccer territory of Australia and the wow factor of the Qatari bid, not to mention South Korea's noble aim of uniting their peninsula, an arguably vainglorious wish in the light of this week's military exchange, Japan has had to come up with a good reason to host another World Cup twenty years after their last one.

Their proposal hinges on that Japanese emblem - technology, but the ideas are genuinely exciting, involving a smart card for match tickets, transport tickets and money, and setting 3-D viewing zones up all over the world free of charge. Japan's world-famous tech firms are on board including Sony, JVC and Panasonic, and the innovations, still in the developmental stage, would constitute a new, fourth revenue stream for FIFA after ticket sales, sponsorship and TV rights. The aim is for FIFA to embrace and control the technology, rather than letting others do it for them.

Soccerphile sat down with bid leader, Japan Football Association Chairman and FIFA Executive Committee member Junji Oguru to discuss his nation's audacious World Cup bid for 2022:

Soccerphile: Why should Japan host the World Cup again?
Junji Ogura: We enjoyed the 2002 World Cup so much and it was very successful. Not only every Japanese person enjoyed it but people from all over the world loved our hospitality. I remember how people from Kyushu took to Cameroon and how some of them traveled to South Africa to cheer them again! So, after such a happy experience in 2002, we said right after the tournament we should do it again.

Japan has the stadia but it is still a developing country with football so we can become a true football nation. Then there is the legacy. Technology is one of our best tools. We have discussed with Sony and other companies how to develop new technologies. That is why we are very confident.

Has football grown in Japan since 2002?
Yes, we now have a J-League 2, a second division, and the interest in football in general has increased with more players and fans. We have 38 professional clubs. We are the premier football nation in Asia.
Japan is using technology as the centre of its bid but isn't technology universal?
There are what, nine other bidding countries, but I could not find they are proposing anything to do with technology. We have the companies here and it comes directly from Japan - we are proposing things for the future - 3D vision without glasses in a few years for instance, which will be very popular in a few years. We can develop these ourselves in Japan with a serious programme.

The JFA originally planned to host the Cup again before 2050
And win it too, hahaha!

So if you don't win 2022, you will be trying again as soon as possible?
Oh yes, that is right, we are committed and ready.

Who do you think are your major rivals this time?
Every bidder is very strong. The USA has its major stadia, Australia can say they have never had the World Cup in Oceania. Qatar can say the same about West Asia.

What was your reaction to China's announcement it was aiming for 2026?
Oooh, China. I have friends in the Chinese Football Association and they did not say anything to the Asian Confederation about that. Some of the AFC members were angry. It was bad for the AFC's image.

Surely China was always going to bid sooner or later?
Yes, China is a big country with a big possibility of hosting the World Cup. China claim they never said they would not, but we need unity amongst the Asian members.

Oguru is a jolly and animated man, exploding some Western stereotypes about the inscrutable Asians. His eyes light up as he speaks with real enthusiasm about his country's bid. He is a man who truly loves football, and broke into a childish laugh when I brought up his love of West Ham United and Bobby Moore.

At the mention of China's announcement that it wishes to bid for 2026, a darker look came over him, a look of fear and of having been let down by a close friend. FIFA rules forbid consecutive hostings by one confederation, and it is felt China's lure will influence some Ex.Co. members to skip the Asian bidders for 2022 as a result.

The feeling remains that Japan will not host 2022, but their bid was brave, innovative and valid, and more proof that the country takes soccer seriously and is becoming a major player on and off the field of world soccer. Japan, football and technology will be together for years to come.

Gambare Nippon!

(c) Sean O'Conor & Soccerphile

photos by Iman Simon - imansim@gmail.com
Tags

World Cup Pens
World Cup Posters
Euro 2012 football

The only men who matter

2018 World Cup Decision - Zurich

Hours of debate and acres of column inches have been expended debating the pluses and minuses of the various 2018 World Cup bids, and the FIFA Executive Committee have their exhaustive technical study to go on (which rated England and Spain/Portugal as the safest bets) as well as the McKinsey report (which claimed the English bid would be the most lucrative).

Recent news has hurt several bids - the military exchanges between the two Koreas, the looming financial crises in Portugal and Spain, the Wikileaks diplomatic assessment of Russia as a gangster state and the pitch invasion at the Birmingham derby in England. Only the low countries' bid seems to have avoided the bad headlines, but it has missed the good ones too. The Dutch government's reluctance to turn the tournament into a tax haven for the tournament and bankroll FIFA to the tune of 300 million Euros probably dealt their bid the coup de grace.

Yet at the end of the day, the two-year lobbying process, which has become frenzied in Switzerland as the hours count down to the vote, tell the true tale about how World Cup hostings are decided - by forming alliances. With 22 different nationalities on the Executive Committee, international networking is a must.

According to all accounts, the low-key Spain/Portugal bid has been the most successful in making friends, despite a budget one third of England's or Russia's. The Iberians appear not only to have worked their cultural heritage in bagging the three South American votes on offer, but also struck a potentially winning alliance with Mohamed Bin-Hammam of Qatar, whose influence is believed to extend to two further members. England's repeated courting of Jack Warner seems to have translated into an understanding that CONCACAF's three votes will support them, although Rafael Salguero of Guatemala may be tempted to join his Hispanic brothers.

Cultural heritage is clearly a factor, which means not only the North and South American votes will head back to their ancestral homelands but also that the Egyptian delegate Hany Abo Rida is more likely to follow Mohamed Bin Hammam from the Asian confederation than vote with other (sub-Saharan) Africans. If Korean Chung Mong-Joon plumps as expected for the Dutch/Belgian bid, it will partly be down to his federation has hired four Dutch coaches in the last ten years.

Personal friendships and sentimental reasons will be factors too, as well as old sores and prejudices. Predicting the outright winner is only an approximate exercise given the voting format where the lowest-scoring bid's votes will be allocated elsewhere with each successive round until one nation has an overall majority. And who knows, one or two wavering candidates may even change their mind between rounds in the anonymous ballot boxes.

If England and the Iberians have say seven votes apiece to begin with, that still leaves six second preferences to swing it either way. All that does seem sure going into the final day is that the Dutch & Belgians have no hope of winning and that Spain & Portugal have a slender lead over England, who are narrowly ahead of Russia. Vladimir Putin's last-minute decision not to fly to Zurich while Prince William and David Cameron press the flesh sounds like an admission of defeat. Iberia is the favourite for now, but Angel Maria Villa Llona's boast that "all the fish is sold" a week ago may come back to haunt him if England turn an ear or two at the last minute.

Predictions are inevitably risky given the difficulty in reading the minds of 22 diverse men and the secret nature of the ballot renders prognostications doubly moot, but these nevertheless are mine:

2018 decision - possible first round voting intentions

Spain/Portugal
Julio Grondona (Argentina)
Angel Maria Villa Llona (Spain)
Nicolas Leoz (Paraguay)
Ricardo Texeira (Brazil)
Mohamed Bin Hammam (Qatar)
Worawi Makudi (Thailand)
Hany Abo Rida (Egypt)

England
Geoff Thompson (England)
Jack Warner (Trinidad & Tobago)
Chuck Blazer (USA)
Senes Erzik (Turkey)
Junji Ogura (Japan)
Rafael Salguero (Guatemala)

Russia
Sepp Blatter (Switzerland)
Franz Beckenbauer (Germany)
Vitaly Mutko (Russia)
Marios Lefkaritis (Cyprus)
Jacques Anouma (Ivory Coast)
Issa Hayatou (Cameroon)

Holland/Belgium
Michel D'Hooge (Belgium)
Michel Platini (France)
Chung Mong-Joon (South Korea)

(c) Sean O'Conor & Soccerphile

Tags

World Cup Pens
World Cup Posters
Euro 2012 football